地表水环境遥感监测关键技术与系统

介绍了地表水环境遥感监测的关键技术与系统及其典型应用,其代表性机理模型和应用示范成果主要来自于中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所的高光谱遥感团队在最近几年中取得的一些研究进展,主要包括建立了基于改进双峰法的水体分布自动化遥感提取方法,实现了简单、高效和高精度的水体提取；提出了大型湖泊长时序水量估算方法,并以青藏高原湖区为例,重建了典型湖泊面积、水位和水量序列；发展了基于“软分类”的典型内陆水体叶绿素a浓度反演方法,构建了基于生物光学模型的高度浑浊水体悬浮物浓度遥感反演半解析方法,提高了反演方法的区域和季节适用性；构建了基于水色指数的大范围湖库营养状态和透明度遥感监测方法,实现了全球大型湖库营养状态遥感监测,以及全国大型湖库透明度遥感监测；在此基础上,开发了地表水环境遥感监测系统,提高了水环境遥感监测效率,促进了卫星遥感在水环境监测中的高精度业务化应用。     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Optimization of capture–recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.     

便携式GC-MS仪快速测定水中硝基苯及其在应急监测中的应用

采用便携式GC-MS仪快速测定水中硝基苯,通过优化水中离子强度和顶空加热时间,使方法在0μg/L^300μg/L范围内线性良好,方法检出限为2.5μg/L。标准溶液6次测定结果的RSD为7.8%~10.9%,实际水样的加标回收率为80.7%~103%。同步测定试验表明,硝基苯与7种苯系物分离良好。与国标方法对比,该方法单个样品测定时间由2 h缩短为15 min。将该方法用于应急监测工作中,及时有效的数据可为污水处理及事故调查提供分析和研判依据。     

玛纳斯河流域荒漠草地沙化遥感监测研究

以1989—2016年玛纳斯河流域TM/OLI遥感影像为数据源,利用混合像元分解技术,计算玛纳斯河流域草地总覆盖度和裸沙面积。在此基础上通过监测年与基期年的比较,计算草地覆盖度相对基期年的减少率和裸沙面积相对基期年的增加率两个监测指标,依据《天然草地退化、沙化、盐渍化的分级指标》(GB 19377—2003),对计算出的两个指标分别进行沙化等级评定和赋值,将两种评定结果相综合来监测草地沙化。结果表明,玛纳斯河流域近30年来荒漠草地沙漠化总体呈现先增加后降低的趋势。分析表明,玛纳斯河流域草地沙化是人为和自然因素双重作用的结果。     

固定源排污许可证监测管理制度研究

依靠排污许可证管理,固定源执行由行业排放标准为主正逐步过渡到"国家行业排放标准——单一源排放标准"双层排放标准,并以执行更全面和精准的单一源排放标准为主,对应的监测要求及考核方式更加多样化。对监测管理制度进行设计,明确固定源制定自行监测方案和守法监测的主体责任,厘清许可证核发部门、属地监测、执法部门的监管职责。系统设计"固定源制定并提交自行监测方案-核发部门审核-方案纳入排污许可证中成为规定-依规定自行监测和记录-固定源提交执行报告-监管部门审计式审核-执法监测和执法检查"的全过程管理机制,设计标准化的监管计划程序落实证后监管与执法监测,明晰监管部门的有限责任。     

江苏省水质全要素代表性监测体系的设计

为了评价并进行城市水环境质量考核排名,介绍了江苏省组织开展涵盖地表水、饮用水、地下水、近岸海域和城市内河5种类型"全要素、代表性"水质监测断面(点位)体系建设工作的情况以及全要素断面设置的基本原则和做法。分苏南、苏北、苏中3个区域,对全省地表水监测代表性进行了量化计算,结果表明,调整后全省水质综合指数极差从41.07降至7.17,标准差从3.16降为0.49;采用德尔斐层次分析法分析,设计了水质代表性指数,含1项一级指标、5项二级指标、12项三级指标,计算表明,调整前全省水质代表性指数得分为69.1分,调整后为88.7分。将调整结果进行论证后再与各市环保主管部门交换意见,取得最终一致后正式实施。     

我国环境监测方法标准体系的现状与发展构想

综述了我国环境监测方法标准体系的发展历程和现状,分析了环境监测方法标准在数量和内容及技术水平等方面不能满足环境管理需要、方法标准体系不健全、科学性有待提高等问题,提出加强环境监测方法标准的顶层设计、构建天地一体化的环境监测方法标准体系、实行动态管理并加强质控、加强监测科研借鉴国际经验等发展构想。     

基于平衡计分卡的大气环境监测数据共享网站绩效评估研究

基于平衡计分卡原理,结合网站特点,建立了大气环境监测数据共享网站绩效评估模型。以共享网站的战略愿景为模型框架的中心,以财务、顾客、内部程序、学习与成长等4个基本维度为一级指标,构建了绩效评估指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重。利用该模型对长三角区域空气质量预测预报系统和宁波市空气质量预报预警平台的大气数据共享模块进行实证研究,绩效评估结果均为良好。     

齐齐哈尔市PM2.5与PM10污染趋势及相关性分析

对2014—2016年齐齐哈尔市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的时间变化特征进行简要分析,并探究PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)以及PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的相关性。结果表明:2014—2016年齐齐哈尔的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)的年均质量浓度分别为36.7、62.9μg/m~3,且呈逐渐下降趋势;冬季的PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)浓度最高,秋季次之,春季与夏季相对较低;2014—2016年PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度月变化趋势基本相同,整体呈现2—6月逐渐下降,9—11月逐渐上升的规律;PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)质量浓度的日变化均呈双峰现象;对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)进行线性拟合,相关系数为0.896 3。同时,残差分析也说明两者拟合情况良好,四季相关系数为r_(秋季)(0.982 2)r_(冬季)(0.964 4)r_(夏季)(0.943 9)r_(春季)(0.829 6);2014—2016年PM_(2.5)/PM_(10)平均值为55.27%,大气颗粒物PM_(2.5)的贡献率高达一半以上。